AGP Executive Report

Japan-Ukraine Diplomacy: Japan’s FM Toshimitsu Motegi met Ukraine’s Andrii Sybiha in Tokyo, reaffirming sanctions on Russia and support for a lasting peace. Cross-Strait Pressure: Taiwan condemned China’s coast guard and government vessels operating around the island, saying Beijing is trying to treat the Taiwan Strait as internal waters. India-Japan Security Push: PM Modi and Japan PM Sanae Takaichi announced new initiatives on defence, technology, and energy security, with the summit framed as deeper Indo-Pacific alignment. ASEAN Signalling: Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim told ASEAN partners the bloc must stay united and central as it navigates Myanmar, the South China Sea, and AI. South Asia Energy Politics: Pakistan discussed potential energy investment with China’s Shandong Xinxu, while Russia offered Pakistan a crude supply deal amid Hormuz disruption fears. India-China Tech Friction: Apple’s chip sourcing plans and US scrutiny of Chinese semiconductor links fed market jitters across Asia, including in New Zealand. Corporate-Industrial Moves: Adani and IHC signed an MoU with Odisha for an $11.5bn aluminium project, while Zimbabwe urged Chinese investors to follow local labour laws as Chinese investment tops $10bn.

Japan–India Summit: Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi arrived in New Delhi for talks with Modi focused on economic security, semiconductors, AI, energy and defence, as Japan pushes India as a “post-China” supply-chain hub. Currency & Markets: Japan’s yen crisis is spilling into global risk sentiment, with reports of weaker demand at Japan’s 10-year bond auction and a shift in intervention tactics aimed at speculators. China–Japan Tensions: Beijing again demanded Japan halt an East China Sea survey in its EEZ, while Xi used the CCP’s 105th anniversary to tout rapid industrialisation and vow stronger military and anti-corruption. India Digital Governance: India marked 11 years of Digital India at the UN, highlighting JAM, UPI scale and DigiLocker growth, while Greece launched UPI via Eurobank. India–WhatsApp Regulation: India ordered Meta to pause WhatsApp “usernames” rollout over fraud and impersonation risks. Crypto/Finance Oversight: India’s Lok Sabha panel will review a regulatory roadmap for virtual digital assets with RBI and ICAI inputs. Social Policy Flashpoint: West Bengal removed eggs from school meals in KMC areas after ISKCON took charge, reigniting nutrition and welfare menu debates. Regional Security & Diplomacy: Marcos urged Canada to play a bigger Indo-Pacific peace and security role; Bangladesh said it will assess China’s proposed economic corridor on national interest. Humanitarian: India reiterated support for Venezuela under “Operation Amistad” after twin earthquakes.

Myanmar Crisis: The Philippines renewed its push for Myanmar to release detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi after reports the junta rejected an ASEAN envoy’s request to meet her, while Manila said it remains committed to the bloc’s Five-Point Consensus. Japan-Ukraine Diplomacy: Japan’s foreign minister reiterated Tokyo’s unwavering support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, including plans for reconstruction help and a grant aid project for young civil servants. India-Japan Summit: Japan PM Sanae Takaichi arrived in New Delhi for talks with Modi aimed at deepening economic security, energy cooperation, defence and resilient supply chains. China-Russia Military Links: Reuters reported China conducted covert training for Russian forces with top-level Russian authorization, focused on radiological, chemical and biological protection. China-Japan Trade Tensions: China imposed export restrictions on 40 Japanese firms, citing support for Japan’s “new militarism,” prompting a Japanese protest. India Tech Governance: India ordered Meta to pause WhatsApp’s planned username rollout and explain it within three days over fraud and impersonation risks. India-Pakistan Prisoners: Pakistan urged India to repatriate 97 prisoners who have completed sentences, citing the consular access agreement. Japan Immigration Backlash: Japan’s tighter visa rules are pushing out some foreign residents, even as the country faces labour shortages. India Domestic Politics: Opposition in India renewed calls for defence minister’s resignation over alleged concealment of military deaths from a 2025 conflict. China Outbound Investment: China’s new outbound investment regulation took effect, tightening rules while signaling “high-level opening-up.” Japan Security Screening: Japan passed major FEFTA reforms expanding foreign investment screening, including indirect acquisition and post-closing intervention powers. ASEAN/Regional: South Korea extended group visa fee waivers for Chinese visitors through end-2026 to boost tourism.

Indo-Pacific & US-India security: US Ambassador Sergio Gor played down the “Indo-Pacific” renaming row, saying the “name on the letterhead” matters less than ongoing drills and defence ties. Japan-India diplomacy: Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi arrives in New Delhi for the 16th India-Japan Annual Summit, aiming to deepen trade, investment and strategic cooperation. West Asia stakes for India: PM Modi spoke with Iran’s Pezeshkian, stressing dialogue for lasting peace and highlighting freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. China’s political line: Xi told the CPC it must adapt to risks while safeguarding gains, as Taiwan tensions and slower growth loom. China outbound investment rules: Beijing’s new overseas investment regulation is framed as a clearer, higher-standard “opening up” move, not a “fortress.” Taiwan security: Taiwan detected multiple PLA sorties and vessels around its waters and ADIZ. India domestic politics: India’s Cockroach Janta Party protests over alleged NEET question-paper leaks, with reports of possible cabinet reshuffles. India energy policy: India cut export duties on diesel and ATF while raising petrol export duty from July 1, as West Asia risks ease. Pacific governance: Fisheries ministers met in New Zealand and Pacific leaders gathered in Fiji for Troika talks, while climate finance planning moves forward. North Korea-China ties: Kim Jong Un reaffirmed “unshakable will” to deepen relations with Xi ahead of the CPC anniversary.

China’s Education Push: Beijing says its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) will boost China’s global education influence via research exchanges, “Study in China” branding, and wider cooperation with Europe, the US, Belt and Road partners and the Global South. India-Bangladesh Mobility: India’s visa centres in Bangladesh will move to an automatic time-slot system from July 1, after a near two-year suspension. China-Japan Trade Friction: China imposed export controls on 40 Japanese entities, citing Tokyo’s “new militarism,” while Japan called the steps unacceptable. India’s Security Narrative: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh argues India’s global role hinges on self-reliance, technology and security, with Gujarat flagged as a defence-production hub. India Opposition vs Government: Congress accuses Modi’s administration of concealing military deaths tied to the Pakistan conflict, demanding resignations and an apology. China-EU Talks: China and the EU launched a trade and investment consultation mechanism covering export controls, IP, and WTO reform. Regional Diplomacy: China’s VP met Saudi FM to deepen coordination on peace and stability amid Middle East tensions. Humanitarian/Foreign Policy: India’s Army field hospital in Venezuela under Operation Amistad is now fully operational after earthquakes. Legal Accountability (Nepal): Nepal’s Supreme Court ordered the government to explain why a long-stalled probe into Nepal Airlines’ Chinese aircraft deal was never investigated. Domestic Rights (India): India’s manual scavenging crisis persists, with 55 sanitation worker deaths reported in early 2026. Tech & Tourism: India signed an MoU with Google India to digitize and AI-enhance tourism promotion.

US-India Trade Talks: US Ambassador Sergio Gor says the interim trade agreement is in the “final steps,” with about 1% of issues left, and signals a Trump visit to India is expected next year (not during US midterms). EU-China Trade Friction: Brussels and Beijing launched a structured trade and investment consultation mechanism and set an October push for “tangible results,” as the EU warns the status quo isn’t sustainable. Japan Foreign Investment Screening: Japan’s new foreign investment committee will tighten screening of overseas shareholding in sensitive sectors, as the yen hits a 40-year low and Tokyo weighs “appropriate action.” Taiwan Security: President Lai Ching-te urged cadets to resist China’s espionage and infiltration, warning against threats to Taiwan’s sovereignty. New Caledonia Politics: Loyalists won the most seats but fell short of a majority, leaving a centrist party as kingmaker after unrest over electoral rules. India Election Process: 23 parties plus one Independent sent a joint letter to India’s CJI over the Election Commission’s SIR process, with Congress framing it as “solidarity, unity and resistance.” China-US Legal Fallout: Exiled tycoon Guo Wengui was sentenced to 30 years in the US for a $1bn fraud. Pacific Security Deal: Australia and Vanuatu signed a $500m strategic agreement, cementing Australia as a key aid and policing partner.

Pacific Security Deal: Australia and Vanuatu signed an agreement in Canberra that bars any foreign military base on the island, with Canberra citing China’s growing presence and wharf expansion in Luganville. China-Taiwan Maritime Pressure: Chinese coast guard ships escorted a government survey vessel near overlapping Japan-Philippines EEZ areas, a move analysts link to Beijing’s push for jurisdiction near Taiwan. Japan Export Controls Clash: China widened export curbs on Japan, blacklisting 20 Japanese entities tied to defense and dual-use materials, escalating a dispute after Japan’s Taiwan-related remarks. India EV Push: Delhi approved EV Policy 2.0, offering scrappage incentives and road-tax/registration exemptions for electric cars, while phasing out petrol/CNG two-wheelers by 2028. India Fuel Market Reset: India lifted temporary petrol and diesel sale restrictions from July 1 after supply normalised post West Asia disruptions. India Ram Temple Graft Case: An Indian court detained eight men over alleged embezzlement tied to the Ram temple project, a political headache for Modi’s BJP. India-Justice & Rights: Delhi High Court cancelled bail in a child sexual assault case, ordering surrender to the POCSO court. India External Debt: RBI data put India’s external debt at $762.8bn at end-March 2026, with the debt-to-GDP ratio rising to 20.8%. EU-China Trade Talks: EU and China launched trade consultations aimed at managing frictions over market access and export controls.

India–Seychelles Partnership: PM Narendra Modi and President Patrick Herminie unveiled 19 new outcomes after talks, spanning defence and maritime security, digital payments, space, healthcare, agriculture and education, alongside a USD 175m special economic package. Pacific Security: Australia and Vanuatu signed the Nakamal Agreement, barring any foreign military base on Vanuatu territory and locking in Canberra as the key security and policing partner, after months of delay over sovereignty concerns. Korea–Japan Defense Push: South Korea and Japan reaffirmed denuclearization goals and deepened defence coordination, including AI and training links, as regional threats keep pressure on. Japan Politics & Money Politics: A senior LDP lawmaker said Princess Aiko cannot become emperor under current succession rules, while a separate political funding scandal over PM Sanae Takaichi’s reports highlights “money politics” and defence-industry collusion. China–Japan Trade Escalation: China added 20 Japanese entities to export controls, tightening dual-use restrictions amid rising Taiwan-linked tensions. Hong Kong Housing Oversight: Officials said Hong Kong will step up renovation inspections and consider spot checks after a deadly public housing blaze, aiming to strengthen accountability. China–Taiwan Jurisdictional Claims: Chinese coast guard escorts a government survey near overlapping EEZs, signalling jurisdictional intent beyond pure military signalling. India–US Tech Cooperation: An Indian official said private firms are key to turning AI, semiconductors, quantum and critical-minerals cooperation into real projects. Human Rights & Dissent: A Chinese dissident described repeated detentions and a perilous dinghy escape that ended in Canada after attempts to flee via multiple countries.

India–US Tech Push: Washington and New Delhi are moving from talks to projects on semiconductors, AI, quantum and critical minerals, with officials stressing “trusted” supply chains and economic security. Taiwan Under Pressure: The US urged American states and businesses to deepen Taiwan ties, saying engagement fits long-standing policy despite Chinese warnings. S. Korea–Japan Defence: Seoul and Tokyo reaffirmed denuclearization goals and agreed to deepen defence exchanges, including AI, search-and-rescue drills and cooperation between aerobatic teams. Philippines–China Sea Row: Manila hit back after Beijing rejected the 2016 arbitral ruling, with Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro calling China’s stance “insincere” and “duplicity.” India–Seychelles Diplomacy: PM Modi became the first Indian premier to address Seychelles’ National Assembly, pitching the Indian Ocean as a shared “ocean of opportunity” and underscoring maritime security and new pacts. Bangladesh–China Investment: Chinese firms proposed about $9.2bn in Bangladesh during Tarique Rahman’s China visit, including Mongla Port upgrades and major infrastructure and energy plans. Japan Bonds Plan: Japan’s finance ministry is considering expanding retail government bonds for individuals, including ideas like inflation-linked and longer-maturity products. China Dissident Reaches Canada: A Chinese political dissident who fled by dinghy to South Korea has arrived in Canada, seeking reunification with family. US FCC China Tech Ban: The FCC expanded bans on Chinese telecom and surveillance equipment, including legacy Huawei/ZTE/Hikvision gear. Weather Watch: India’s monsoon faces El Niño-linked risks, prompting contingency planning for rainfall deficits and farm impacts.

India–US AI & chips: A USISPF roundtable in Washington said private firms are key to turning India–US cooperation on AI, semiconductors, quantum and critical minerals into real projects, with officials stressing trusted supply chains. India’s chip push: India approved 12 semiconductor manufacturing projects under the India Semiconductor Mission, with an Rs 1.64 lakh crore investment pipeline, alongside IndiaAI Mission progress. India–Seychelles security ties: PM Modi handed over an India-built Fast Patrol Vessel to Seychelles and added ambulances and boats, reinforcing maritime surveillance and Indian Ocean cooperation. Bangladesh–China pivot: Bangladesh and China agreed to deepen a “shared future” partnership spanning trade, infrastructure, water management, defence and technology, while Chinese firms proposed $9.21bn in investment. South China Sea friction: The Philippines accused China of hypocrisy after Beijing rejected a Manila demand tied to the 2016 arbitration ruling. Japan quake: A 6.1 quake hit off Iwate with no tsunami threat, as Japan warned of aftershocks and landslide risks. Korea–Japan defence: Seoul and Tokyo agreed to keep expanding defence exchanges, including AI cooperation and maritime search-and-rescue. Pacific politics: New Caledonia began long-delayed provincial elections under heavy security, seen as pivotal for future talks with France. Fiji party reform: SODELPA floated a General Voters’ Wing to broaden representation ahead of the next election.

India-US Trade Talks: US envoy Sergio Gor says only “a handful of issues” remain and the India-U.S. trade deal could be completed within weeks or months, with negotiators now focused on legal language. US-India Diplomacy: Marco Rubio adds that President Donald Trump is likely to visit India early next year, with preparations already underway. India-UK CETA Rollout: Piyush Goyal announces 1,000 advisory personnel and an upgraded trade portal to help firms capture benefits from the India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement. West Asia Energy Shock: India restores restrictions on commercial LPG supplies after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, while Crisil warns West Asia tensions may still shave corporate margins in FY27. India-Seychelles Security: PM Modi hands over a “Made in India” fast patrol vessel and other maritime assets to Seychelles, deepening defence and EEZ patrol capacity. China-Bangladesh: Beijing backs Bangladesh’s BRICS bid and SCO partner push, while insisting Teesta cooperation is not aimed at India. Japan Domestic Politics: Japan’s bar association opposes a proposed law criminalising flag damage, warning it could chill protest and speech. Humanitarian/Disaster Response: India launches “Operation Amistad” sending a 41-member relief team to earthquake-hit Venezuela. Regional Politics: Malaysia’s Johor state election nominations set up contests across 56 seats, mixing incumbents and new faces.

India–Economy Outlook: EY expects India’s FY27 growth at 6.6–6.8% as global energy markets normalise, keeping CPI inflation around 4.5% and narrowing external pressures. West Asia Spillover: Crisil says corporate India’s margin hit from the region could be about half if the US-Iran ceasefire holds and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz keeps improving. Japan Disasters & Policy: A 5.6–6 quake struck central Japan without tsunami risk, while twin tropical storms forced evacuations and disrupted travel; Japan’s ruling coalition also faces delays on a planned food consumption tax cut. ASEAN Science Push: Laos hosted ASEAN’s STI ministerial meeting, aiming to advance the 2026–2035 science, tech and innovation action plan. China–Regional Politics: China removed six military lawmakers and senior officials from posts in a fresh Xi-era purge; meanwhile, China and Cambodia pledged to deepen “ironclad” friendship and strategic cooperation. US–China Tech Friction: The FCC expanded bans on Chinese telecom and surveillance equipment imports, and US lawmakers warned about China’s AI and tech infiltration tactics. India–Diplomacy: PM Modi’s Seychelles trip spotlights the Indian Ocean agenda under Vision MAHASAGAR, with new cooperation on maritime security, AI and blue economy. India–Bangladesh Reset: India resumes tourist visas from June 28 as ties normalise, while also scaling humanitarian facilitation. Elections & Governance: A parliamentary panel briefed Ladakh’s LG on water scarcity and environmental challenges; in India, Cabinet moves to drop indelible ink rules for elections, arguing it adds cost and friction. Trade & Industry: Piyush Goyal met UK business leaders on expanding investment and the India-UK trade agenda, as global firms announced fresh commitments to India. Humanitarian Ops: India launched Operation Amistad, sending IAF planes with a field hospital and relief supplies to earthquake-hit Venezuela. Local Political Turmoil (India): Maharashtra’s Shiv Sena split deepens as Shinde’s camp claims more UBT MLAs may defect, reviving “Operation Tiger 2.0” talk.

Philippines Workplace Stress: Gallup’s 2026 report says 50% of Filipino workers felt stress “a lot of the day” in 2025—double the regional average—making the Philippines a Southeast Asia outlier. Japan Quake Response: A 5.6 quake hit Yamanashi near Mt. Fuji; Shinkansen services were briefly suspended and officials reported no nuclear or volcanic abnormalities. India Humanitarian Diplomacy: India launched “Operation Amistad” to earthquake-hit Venezuela, sending a paratrooper medical contingent and modular BHISHM Cube field hospitals as the death toll climbed. Bangladesh-China Strategic Push: PM Tarique Rahman’s China visit produced a sweeping cooperation framework, including defence and a proposed Bangladesh-Myanmar-China corridor, with Xi pledging long-term support. China’s Global Governance Narrative: A new Chinese white paper lays out Beijing’s vision for a “more just” international order, positioning China as a rule-shaper. India-UK Trade Politics: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal backed the India-UK CETA rollout, arguing it will protect domestic sectors and boost jobs. India Domestic Lawmaking: West Bengal’s BJP government is set to table a Uniform Civil Code Bill in the assembly, moving fast on an ideological priority. Japan Citizenship Case: A Japanese-Filipino woman’s bid for Japanese nationality was rejected by a family court, with an appeal planned. Trade Remedies: India opened an anti-dumping probe into hot-rolled steel from China, Japan and Russia. EU-China Auto Tensions: The EU is preparing anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese plug-in hybrids as Chinese brands keep gaining market share.

Bangladesh–China Diplomacy: Prime Minister Tarique Rahman marked his Beijing visit with tributes at Tiananmen Square and then met Xi Jinping, with talks expected to cover trade, investment, projects and people-to-people ties. India–US Trade Talks: India and the US wrapped another round of ministerial-level reviews, but the “very close” rhetoric still leaves tariffs, pharma rules, digital trade and farm access unresolved, with an interim deal timeline still unclear. India–UK Trade: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said the India-UK CETA and DCC will take effect July 15, as both sides push innovation and investment. India Passport Fees: India raised passport and travel document fees from July 1, including higher normal and Tatkal charges for fresh and replacement passports. Public Health & Climate: India’s humid heat crisis is framed as a public health emergency, while reporting highlights how antibiotic resistance is worsening in overcrowded hospitals. Pacific Politics: New Caledonia holds its first local vote since 2019, a key step for independence talks with France. Japan Travel Policy: Japan’s embassy in Manila clarified temporary visitor visas for Filipinos stay free despite higher visa fees for other nationals. Energy Scale: China’s installed power capacity crossed 4,000 GW, with non-fossil sources now the majority.

China’s Lawmaking: China’s top legislature’s standing committee heard reports on draft revisions to the trademark law and certified public accountants rules, plus central government final accounts for 2025, as it moves bills toward further deliberation. China–Europe Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Austria’s EU affairs minister in Beijing, stressing mutual respect and UN Security Council coordination ahead of Austria’s UN term. Trade & Supply Chains: China used the China–Eurasia Expo and a major supply-chain expo in Beijing to pitch “GEAR” upgrades—green growth, ecosystem building, AI, and resilience—while showcasing cross-border business links, including Afghan participation. Bangladesh–China Pivot: Bangladesh PM Tarique Rahman pressed for Chinese support on development and the China–Bangladesh Friendship Hospital during talks in Beijing, as Dhaka and Beijing signed 13 MoUs across trade, investment, health, education, and green cooperation. India–EU Values: India and the EU held their 12th human rights dialogue in New Delhi, reaffirming commitments to democracy and rights. India–US/UK Economic Push: India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal met export bodies to speed approvals and market access, while India–UK CETA preparations point to July 15 implementation. Philippines Growth Hit: S&P cut the Philippines’ 2026 growth forecast sharply, citing stalled infrastructure spending and energy shocks. Japan Security Debate: Japan’s manpower strain is fueling debate over whether AI can help the Self-Defense Forces as remilitarisation and constitutional politics intensify. Regional Security Networks: A new “hub-and-spoke” style security web is emerging across the South China Sea, with defense deals and information-sharing arrangements expanding beyond formal alliances. Climate & Health: Singapore warned of a high haze risk later this year tied to El Niño and deforestation pressures; Japan research highlights progress toward hepatitis elimination by 2050. Corruption Probe: Sri Lanka’s bribery commission arrested three suspects, including a former justice minister’s son, in a Rs. 120 million alleged Dubai-linked bribery case.

Human Rights Watch: A New Zealand-based HRMI assessment says the Philippines is among Southeast Asia’s weakest on civil and political rights, flagging especially low protection from arbitrary arrest. India–Security Tech: India is linking airport facial recognition at six major hubs to Delhi’s National Intelligence Grid to boost real-time monitoring for law enforcement. Trade Dispute: The WTO agreed to set up a panel on China’s challenge to India’s solar manufacturing and related IT measures, escalating a tariff-and-local-content fight. Tech Rivalry: China’s LineShine supercomputer has taken the TOP500 crown, displacing the US’s El Capitan and underscoring the AI-and-computing race. US–China Corporate Tensions: Alibaba sued the US over its Pentagon “Chinese military companies” listing, arguing it has no defense ties. Bangladesh–China Investment Push: Bangladesh’s PM Tarique Rahman invited Chinese firms to expand manufacturing value chains, promising faster approvals and a China-based investment support office. Japan Earthquake Response: Strong quakes hit Japan’s northeast, with emergency task forces stood up and no tsunami concern reported. Philippines–SME Finance: CBS China Bank Savings says it will keep credit standards and support SMEs amid inflation and slower growth.